Bell Curve


India is currently into the third leg of battling COVID19. Apparently it should not be called a lockdown, because unlike the prior two, plenty of easing up is seen in restrictions with zonal divisions of the nation based on disease load.

The inept governance that GoI is known for under Modi means, the number of amendments and revisions of guidelines in itself need a large folder to sift through!

https://caravanmagazine.in/health/surge-in-covid-cases-proves-centre-wrong-pandemic-response-marked-by-theatrics-not-science

A graph that brought much muse to the scientific world is the prediction of how a bell shaped curve and dip in cases were projected into the third week of May. Whilst there is progressive ramping up of testing, and per million deaths continue to be one of the lowest in the world, this needed quite a stretch of imagination apart from its peculiar sync with the terminal date of the third leg of lockdown.

So what benefit does it serve in the midst of a pandemic, to undertest, under report and under diagnose COVID19? For all the sensationalism that this virus creates, it still has a very low mortality rate in comparison to its predecessors SARS and MERS.

Narendra Modi, all throughout his tenure as Prime Minister, always makes it a point to have his signature on every move. He prefers a distinctive path that centres all the actions as distinctly emanating from him.

It has been reported at large, how he sidelines every expert and we will have to just stand by and watch as things unfold perilously.

Currently we are in the rising phase of the curve. Unlike other countries, with better transparency indices than India, we are going to be having a persistent prolonged Bell curve in this pandemic.

The worry remains perennially on Indian healthcare workers as undertesting and under reporting would mean repeated exposures to viral loads, shortening the crippling healthcare system.

Opinion

Dr Babu View All →

Radiologist l Cyclist l Blogger

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